Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 161,000 in October while the unemployment rate dipped slightly from 5 percent in September to 4.9 percent. The number of unemployed also dipped in October to 7.8 million. The revision in numbers for both August and September, reflect an additional 44,000 employment gains, bringing the monthly average over the last three months to 176,000.
Employment continued to trend up in health care (+31,000), professional and business services (+43,000), and financial activities (+14,000). Combined, these three industries have filled over 100 thousand positions this year. Employment in other major industries, including mining, construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, leisure and hospitality, and government, changed little over the month.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was unchanged at 2.0 million in October and accounted for 25.2 percent of the unemployed.
Average hourly earnings climbed an additional 10 cents to $25.92 with an annualized increase of 2.8 percent. Wage growth is at its strongest point right now with the employment-to-population ratio reaching 78.2 percent, a level it hasn’t reached since 2008.
Employment gains have remained steady since the recession ended providing a rise in earnings in recent years which solidifies a rate increase before the end of the year. Some, however, are suspecting that the outcome of Tuesday’s election may ultimately affect that action even further.
Total non-farm payrolls increased by 156,000 in September which was lower than the expected 176,000. So far this year, job growth has averaged 178,000 per month, compared with an average of 229,000 per month in 2015. The unemployment rate ricked slightly upwards to 5.0 percent and the number of unemployed, at 7.9 million, changed little. Both measures have shown little movement since August of last year.
Job gains occurred in professional and business services with 67,000 new positions while health care added 33,000 jobs and food and bar services added 30,000. Retail trade continued to trend up over the month with an addition of 22,000 jobs.
Mining employment was unchanged in September and employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, showed little change over the month.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) accounted for 24.9 percent of the unemployed population and remained unchanged at 2.0 million. Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.9 percent, and the employment population ratio, at 59.8 percent, were unchanged in September.
Average hourly earnings for all private non-farm employees rose by 6 cents to $25.79. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.6 percent.
The Federal Reserve is looking to get rates back to normal and there is implication that could happen in December so this report comes at a critical time. With the presidential election, however, there may be further postponement.
August has continuously undershot expectations by the most of any month on average over the last 13 years and this year has proved no different with a mere 151,000 job gains. The unemployment rate was unchanged for the third month in a row at 4.9 percent and the number of unemployed persons held steady at 7.8 million or 9.7 percent – both showing little movement over the year. Average hourly earnings in August rose by an additional 3 cents to $25.73.
Employment in restaurants and bars continued to trend upward with an additional 34,000 jobs. Social assistance added 22,000 positions, with most of the growth in individual and family services. Employment in professional and technical services grew by 20,000 and financial activities edged up by 15,000. Health care also contributed 14,000 jobs in August, though at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. Since peaking in September 2014, employment in mining has declined by 223,000, with an additional loss of 4,000 positions in August.
Employment in several other industries – including constructions, manufacturing, wholes trade, retail and information, transportation and warehousing, temporary help services, and government – showed little change over the month.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) accounted for 26.1 percent of the unemployed population and remained unchanged at 2.0 million. Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.8 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.7 percent, were also unchanged in August.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down from +292,000 to +271,000, and the numbers for July were revised up from +255,000 to +275,000, combined job gains were 1,000 less than previously reported.
Job numbers are being watched closely by the Federal Reserve as they prepare to meet this month to discuss the possibility of a rate increase which is appropriate when the economy shows a solid and continual improvement. Many feel the August numbers still show economic growth but the jobs report likely decreases the probability of a rate hike for right now.
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